Projects & Research Partnerships

Introduction

In 2014 we were commissioned by the Welsh Government to adapt the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model to Wales in order to appraise the potential impact of a range of alcohol pricing policies. The model had previously been used to appraise policies in England and Scotland.

The research questions were:

• What is the estimated impact of MUP policies ranging from 35p-70p per unit if the policies were to be introduced in 2014?
• What is the estimated impact of a ban on below-cost selling?
• How do these impacts vary by drinker group (moderate, increasing risk, high risk) and by income group (in poverty, not in poverty)?

These main research questions were concerned with the likely effects of introducing MUP on alcohol consumption, spending, Exchequer and retailer receipts, health, crime and workplace absenteeism in Wales.

2017 update

In June 2017 we were commissioned by the Welsh Government once again to model the potential impact of a minimum unit pricing policy for alcohol and how this might compare to rises in alcohol duty. This built on the previous modelling work undertaken in 2014. The aims of this research were:

• To use new data and new modelling approaches to provide new estimates of the impact of a MUP (at levels in 5p increments from 35-70p) on alcohol consumption, spending, health, crime and workplace outcomes, and how these impacts varied across different levels of drinking and deprivation.
• To establish the proportional increase in alcohol duty which would be required to achieve the same reduction in the alcohol consumption of hazardous and harmful drinkers (those drinking over 14 units/week for men and women) as a 50p MUP and to illustrate how the impact of these two policies (MUP and duty rises) were distributed differently across the population.
• To establish the proportional increase in alcohol duty which would be required to achieve the same reduction in alcohol-attributable deaths among hazardous and harmful drinkers as a 50p MUP and illustrate the differences in distribution of impact across the population.

2025 update

In 2024 the Welsh Government commissioned us to undertake new modelling work, following the introduction in Wales of a 50p minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol in 2020. The implementation included a 'sunset clause' under which the Senedd is required to decide whether to repeal or continue the legislation by March 2026. The aims of the modelling were to:

• Appraise a range of potential MUP thresholds – including removing MUP entirely – compared to retaining the existing 50p threshold. 
• Compare these MUP thresholds to duty increases and illustrate how the impacts of MUP and duty rises are distributed differently across the population.
• Explore possible approaches to uprating the MUP level over time. 

The work involved adapting the new Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Model (STAPM) for Wales.